Hydrogen in the Sahara: Export Dreams or Real Opportunity?

Why This Thesis Is Back on the Table

Solar intensity, land availability, and EU decarbonization targets have revived interest in Algeria’s H₂ export corridor—especially in Béchar and Tindouf.

Feasibility Lenses to Apply Early

• Water: Source, desal capacity, and unit economics.
• Offtake: Who buys, under what contract tenor and indexation?
• Transmission: Port, pipeline, or derivatives (ammonia, methanol).
• Certification: Guarantees of origin and cross-border compliance.

Cost Drivers (What Moves the Needle)

Capex (renewables + electrolyzers), desal OPEX, transport, and certification costs. Optimize siting and integration to keep LCOW competitive.

Early-Mover Playbook

• Secure land and grid access letters.
• Progress environmental and water permits.
• Pilot with modest nameplate to validate numbers before scaling.
• Line up an EU offtaker or a bankable derivative pathway.

Early movers win by de-risking the boring bits first: water, land, and offtake. If you can map those constraints with real partners and realistic timelines, the rest of the thesis stops being hypothetical.

Risks & Mitigations

• Policy drift → Mitigate with bilateral MoUs.
• Water scarcity → Co-site with desal and circular-water design.
• Capex volatility → Stage procurement; consider flexible vendor terms.

Bottom Line

De-risk the boring bits—water, land, offtake—before evangelizing a giga-scale vision.

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